Boeing Mirrors the Economy. It Doesn’t Look Good.

In recent days, senior Boeing executives have made it clear to the White House and Congress that if the aerospace giant does not receive government assistance, it could decline rapidly, causing significant damage to the American economy.

The tumbling of its stock price has pulled down the markets in recent weeks. Even before the virus crisis took hold, Mr. Trump blamed the 737 Max for contributing to a drop in the gross domestic product.

The fallout from the virus poses Boeing’s greatest challenge since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, when it cut production in half and laid off tens of thousands of people. Company insiders say the pandemic is far worse, since it has touched every continent other than Antarctica and plunged nearly every airline worldwide into crisis.

“It’s not just Boeing,” said Susan Houseman, director of research at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. “Its supply chain may be irreparably damaged. There will be bankruptcies, companies will lose their workers, and they just can’t restart in six months.”

Boeing executives are furiously drafting contingency plans and trying to find a way to keep factories open and avoid mass layoffs or furloughs, three people familiar with the deliberations said. Executives from the medical, financial and human resources teams are monitoring developments constantly, and have identified several potential situations that could cause production to grind to a halt, one of the people said.

Boeing executives believe the most likely possibility is that the government effectively mandates a work stoppage, either by shutting down all nonessential businesses or instituting strict travel restrictions, such as border closures or shelter-in-place orders.

Factories could also shut down if too many employees at one facility become sick, raising the risk of community spread on the factory floor. And supply-chain disruptions could become so severe that Boeing does not have the parts it needs to make planes.

Boeing is bracing for a rise in absent workers, either because school closings force parents to stay home or because people are too scared to leave the house. Already, some workers have begun to stay home, one of the people briefed on the plans said.

Should plants have to shut down, Boeing could move them into a state of “suspended operations.” Under such conditions, some Boeing employees might still be paid. And if workers at the company’s factories in Washington State are sick, they may be eligible for the state’s paid family and medical leave.

Yet there is also the possibility that the sudden drop in demand for Boeing products leads to layoffs. In that event, executives would consult an internal ranking system known as the “retention totem,” a reference to the totem poles of the Native Americans of the Pacific Northwest, where Boeing was founded and still has its largest presence.

In the system, employees are put in one of three categories, from R1 to R3, based on how essential they are to the business, three people familiar with the system said. The lower the number, the less likely one is to get fired.

Mass layoffs would put Boeing in a very difficult position. Restarting production won’t be easy if the company has lost a significant chunk of its skilled mechanics and engineers.

But the company will need to cut costs and is running out of other options.

Borders are closing, and Mr. Trump has raised the prospect of cordoning off Washington, a move that would paralyze Boeing’s production. And with airlines around the world facing imminent bankruptcy, Boeing may soon face an abrupt drop in revenue.

Fifteen Boeing employees around the country have tested positive for Covid-19, the disease caused by the new virus. Suppliers are already having problems delivering necessary parts to Boeing; one, a major manufacturer of parts for the company’s 787 and 767 planes, is based in northern Italy, an epicenter of the outbreak. General Electric, which supplies 90 percent of all Boeing engines, also gets parts in Italy.

Mr. Trump is seeking a $850 billion stimulus package, which is expected to include relief for the aviation industry. For Boeing, the most likely result is that the government guarantees billions of dollars in loans that big banks would make to the company. If Boeing’s revenues run dry for months, such loans could allow it to keep paying some employees and suppliers.

Even before the prospect of government relief was on the table, Boeing was taking steps to fortify its finances. Last week, it drew down a credit line of $13.8 billion.

The impact of the pandemic on the aviation industry has already been profound. Demand for commercial airplanes has fallen sharply, and no one is sure when it will return.

Airlines around the world have also sharply reduced service, including American, United, Delta and major international carriers like Cathay Pacific and Lufthansa. Analysts believe that within months, many airlines may go bankrupt.

More immediately, Boeing is assessing its ability to continue day-to-day production. The company is working with Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington to figure out whether the prohibition on gatherings of more than 50 people applies to, say, a cafeteria that can seat 200 in the company’s plant in Everett.

On Tuesday, Airbus, Boeing’s chief rival, shut down factories in France and Spain in an effort to stop the spread of the virus.

Most analysts, bankers and executives believe Boeing will come through this crisis, partly because it’s viewed as too big to fail. Boeing is not just one of two companies in the world making commercial airplanes. It is also one of the largest defense contractors in the country and a producer of critical aircraft and equipment for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

“For Boeing to collapse and go out of business, it would be devastating to the economy,” said Scott Hamilton, an aviation consultant. “It will survive, in one form or another.”

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