(Reuters) – The U.S. central bank will move aggressively to cut borrowing costs as soon as next month, trimming an extraordinary three-fourths of a percentage point by mid-year to cushion the world’s biggest economy from the impact of the coronavirus, traders of futures contracts tied to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate are now betting.
Traders are pricing in a 72% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting, and better than even odds of two more such rate cuts by the end of July, according to CME Group’s FedWatch, which translates fed funds futures pricing into traders’ monetary policy expectations.
That’s up from a 33% chance of a March rate cut seen on Wednesday, before U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Vice President Mike Pence to head public health efforts to contain the virus’ spread.
Fed policymakers have so far taken a wait-and-see approach, saying that after cutting rates three times last year they want to see a “material change” in the economic data before they take further action.
“The Fed’s desire to be data-dependent may capitulate to market sentiment,” said Jon Hill, an interest rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Leaders around the world are rallying their nations to prepare for an epidemic of the flu-like illness that originated in China, has killed 2,800 and infected about 80,000.
New cases outside of China in the past 24 hours surpassed those in mainland China, where spread of the pathogen is on the decline after an aggressive containment campaign that included travel limits and factory shutdowns.
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