Conservatives advised on approach to next election by Curtice
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A new poll has painted a worrying picture for the Conservatives as it revealed the Prime Minister could be faced with the prospect of a mammoth loss of seats. On the contrary, the Labour Party may look on with excitement at the poll results for their own party as it shows them going ahead of the Conservative Party.
However, polling expert Sir John Curtice has vowed that although it may look good for the Labour Party – it does not necessarily suggest that the party is revitalised.
Sir John said: “We are talking about a collapse in the Tory vote not a revival of the Labour party.
“The point is that Labour still have to make any kind of significant advance in their own popularity.
“This is all about the Tories going down the tubes.”
According to the new poll by campaign group 38 Degrees, Survation and Royal Holloway’s Professor Christopher Hanretty, Labour are on 41 percent, with the Conservatives on 35 percent.
This would mean that the Conservatives could see a loss of 111 seats overall.
With Labour, they could see a rise to 309 seats – 11 short of a majority.
The poll also suggests that the Conservative Party could face a heavy defeat in Scotland.
All of these seats currently held in Scotland – which as of now is six – would all be lost as the Scottish National Party are expected to thrive.
One of the most startling revelations from this poll is the suggestion that the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, could potentially lose his seat.
Along with Mr Johnson, Environment Secretary George Eustice, Wales Secretary Simon Hart, Scotland Secretary Alister Jack and COP26 President Alok Sharma all look likely to lose their seats, according to the poll.
In the previous election in 2019, the Conservatives won a large majority in the House of Commons.
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The total number of seats won by the party in the election amounted to 345 seats.
The Labour Party fell significantly behind – with their total number of seats at 180.
Sir John Curtice spoke about the uncertainty of the last election in the weeks prior to the Conservatives win.
Sir John said: “In contrast to many an election, this is not an election in which the crucial outcome is whether we got a Conservative or Labour majority and that anything in between the implications of it is highly uncertain.
“Frankly, Labour actually winning a majority, which would require them to be well ahead in the national vote, does look unlikely but I left open the possibility that we get a hung Parliament.
“The crucial point I’ve been making is that, once we get the Tories polling at around 320 or so, because all the other parties are in favour of having a second EU referendum one has to anticipate those parties will, in the end, come to some understanding to put in a minority Labour administration.”
The polling guru added: “They will apply for an extension, have another EU referendum and the result of that will be ‘who knows’.”
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