‘PM would lose his seat!’ Bexley by-election swing could boot Boris Johnson out of power

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Boris Johnson, 57, has a majority in his seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip smaller than any other recent Prime Minister. When Mr Johnson led the Conservative Party to a thumping Brexit-backed majority in 2019, he only returned to the Commons with a majority of 7,210 votes.

This was much smaller than many of his Cabinet colleagues.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak, 41, has a majority in Richmond (Yorkshire) of 27,210, Home Secretary Priti Patel, registered a 24,082-vote lead over Labour in Witham and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, 46, was returned as the MP for South West Norfolk with a majority of 26,195.

But yesterday’s by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup threatens to put the Prime Minister in an even more precarious position when voters go to the polls at the next general election.

The Bexley poll, which was triggered following the death of Conservative MP James Brokenshire in October, saw Tory candidate Louie French come out on top.

Mr French, a local councillor, won the race to succeed the ex-Northern Ireland Secretary but saw his vote share collapse by 13 percent compared to his predecessor.

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Labour finished in second place after mounting a seven point surge to take them to 30.9 percent.

Reform UK leader Richard Tice, 57, ended up in third with a respectable 6.6 percent.

However, he finished well short of UKIP’s 18.2 percent when they were led by Nigel Farage, also 57, in 2015.

Polling experts suggest if the 10 percent swing towards Labour was emulated at the ballot box in a national election, Mr Johnson could lose his west London seat to Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

Speaking about how the Bexley result could impact Mr Johnson, Professor Michael Thrasher told Sky News: “If this had been a general election then they [Labour] would have done far better than they had done in 2019, the Conservatives would have lost their overall majority, the Prime Minister would have lost his seat, given the size of the swing.”

Labour’s Shadow Solicitor-General Ellie Reeves, 40, told her followers on Twitter: “A fantastic 10.3% swing to Labour in the Conservative heartland of Old Bexley and Sidcup.

The MP for Lewisham and Penge added: “If replicated at a general election Labour would be within reach of forming a majority government.”

If Mr Johnson lost in Uxbridge & South Ruislip he would make electoral history as no incumbent Prime Minister has been ousted from their own seat in a general election.

Ex-Tory leader Arthur Balfour was among the closest when he lost his Manchester constituency less than a year after he resigned from the top job before the 1906 general election.

Voters could also expect another ‘Portillo moment’ in Esher & Walton based on current polling figures.

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Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab held onto the Surrey seat by just 2,743 votes in 2019, despite a Liberal Democrat surge.

But a drop in support for the Conservative Party, particularly in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’, has now put his seat on a knife-edge.

Mr Johnson has suffered several electoral setbacks since the Conservative Party won the Hartlepool by-election back in May.

The Liberal Democrats pulled off a remarkable victory in the true blue Buckinghamshire seat of Chesham & Amersham, with a staggering swing of 25 percent.

The Tories will face yet another challenge from Sir Ed Davey’s party in two weeks time when voters in North Shropshire will decide who will replace the Brexit-backing former MP Owen Paterson.

However, the Liberal Democrats failed to retain their deposit in Bexley as they fell behind the Green Party in fifth place on just 3 percent.

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